What If You Invested in Nvidia Instead of the S&P 500 Five Years Ago?
Five years ago, in January 2020, Nvidia was a $140 billion company known mainly for gaming GPUs and a growing data center business. Then came the AI revolution.
A $10,000 investment in Nvidia in January 2020 would be worth approximately $280,690 today. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 would be worth $22,030. That is a $258,000 gap from a single decision.
Year by year
| Year | $10K in NVDA | $10K in SPY | NVDA annual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10,000 | $10,000 | - |
| 2021 | $16,350 | $12,810 | +63.5% |
| 2022 | $41,530 | $14,430 | +154% |
| 2023 | $33,170 | $13,250 | -20.1% |
| 2024 | $104,500 | $15,980 | +215% |
| 2025 | $203,990 | $20,180 | +95.2% |
| 2026 | $280,690 | $22,030 | +59.2% |
Nvidia's annualized return over this period: 70.5%. The S&P 500's: 13.5%. Both numbers are exceptional by historical standards. The difference is that Nvidia caught the single largest technological wave since the smartphone.
How other Big Tech performed over the same period
Nvidia wasn't the only tech stock that beat the index since 2020. But the gap between Nvidia and its peers is striking:
- $10,000 in Tesla: $85,645 (+756%)
- $10,000 in Alphabet (Google): $40,387 (+304%)
- $10,000 in Apple: $33,943 (+239%)
- $10,000 in Meta: $28,526 (+185%)
- $10,000 in Microsoft: $22,930 (+129%)
- $10,000 in Amazon: $20,766 (+108%)
Every Magnificent Seven stock beat the index. But Nvidia returned more than the next three combined.
Why Nvidia and not the others
The short answer: picks and shovels. While every tech company is building AI products, they are all buying Nvidia's GPUs to do it. Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon - Nvidia's biggest competitors in the AI narrative are also its biggest customers. Data center revenue went from $3 billion in 2020 to over $100 billion run rate by early 2026.
The stock also benefited from starting at a relatively low base. In January 2020, Nvidia's market cap was around $140 billion. Today it exceeds $4 trillion. That kind of move is nearly impossible for a company that already starts at a trillion-dollar valuation.
The volatility cost
These returns were not free. Nvidia dropped 66% from peak to trough in 2022 during the broader tech selloff. A $10,000 investment that had grown to $41,530 fell back to $33,170. Holding through that required ignoring every headline about crypto winter, rising rates, and AI being overhyped.
The S&P 500's worst drawdown in the same period was roughly 25%. Smoother ride, smaller reward.
What about the next five years?
This is not a prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No stock repeats a 2,700% five-year run on command. The question is whether AI infrastructure spending sustains, decelerates, or collapses.
What we can say: the investors who bought Nvidia five years ago and held through the volatility earned one of the best returns in stock market history. The investors who bought the S&P 500 instead still doubled their money. Neither decision was wrong. One was just historically right.
Try the growth projector to model different scenarios for Nvidia going forward, or compare any two investments head to head.
Related: $10,000 in Nvidia since 2015 | AI stocks since 2020 | Semiconductor stock returns