What If You Invested in Gold Instead of the S&P 500 During the 2026 Tariff Shock?
In the first quarter of 2026, gold did something it rarely does: it dramatically outperformed stocks during a period of policy-driven uncertainty. The catalyst was the tariff escalation that began in late 2025 and accelerated through early 2026, rattling global supply chains and sending investors toward hard assets.
A $10,000 investment in gold (GLD) in January 2023 would be worth approximately $20,533 as of the latest monthly close - a +105.3% total return. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 (SPY) would be worth $19,164, a +91.6% return. Gold still leads, but by $1,369, and the gap has been shrinking as stocks rebounded through 2026.
The 2025 divergence, and the 2026 snap-back
The gap between gold and stocks built up gradually, then blew open in a single year. Gold was climbing through 2024 on central bank buying and geopolitical hedging, but its real surge came in 2025, when the tariff escalation sent capital into hard assets. The numbers below track $10,000 invested in each at the start of 2023, with the cumulative value and that year's return:
| Year | $10K in GLD | $10K in SPY | GLD return | SPY return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $10,655 | $11,823 | +6.6% | +18.2% |
| 2024 | $13,496 | $14,776 | +26.7% | +25.0% |
| 2025 | $22,090 | $17,401 | +63.7% | +17.8% |
| 2026 (YTD) | $20,533 | $19,164 | -7.0% | +10.1% |
In 2023 and 2024 the two ran close, with stocks slightly ahead. Then 2025 was gold's year: it returned +63.7% against the S&P 500's +17.8%, the kind of single-year gap that makes headlines. But notice the bottom row. So far in 2026 the script has flipped back. Gold is at -7.0% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is at +10.1%, clawing back part of the gap as stocks recovered from the spring scare. Gold still leads cumulatively, but the blowout was a 2025 event, not an ongoing one.
Why gold surged in 2025
Three forces converged during the run:
- Tariff uncertainty. The new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, European autos, and semiconductor imports created the kind of supply chain uncertainty that drives capital toward safe haven assets. Gold doesn't have a supply chain to disrupt.
- Central bank accumulation. Central banks globally bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold in both 2024 and 2025. China, India, Poland, and Turkey have been the largest buyers, driven partly by a desire to diversify reserves away from dollar-denominated assets.
- Real rates compressing. As the Fed signaled rate cuts in response to slowing growth, real yields on Treasuries dropped. Gold historically performs well when the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls.
The longer view
Zoom out further and the picture gets more nuanced. A $10,000 investment in gold since 2020 would be worth $24,669 - a +146.7% return. Impressive, but the S&P 500 over the same window returned +154.0%, worth $25,399. Over this longer window the S&P 500 comes out ahead, with the 2026 rebound having erased the lead gold built in 2025.
The big reversal happened in 2025, when tariff fears and geopolitical hedging made gold the trade. For most of 2020-2024, stocks were the better bet, and in 2026 stocks have taken the lead back month to month. The lesson isn't that gold always wins during uncertainty. It's that during specific types of uncertainty - trade wars, currency debasement fears, de-dollarization narratives - gold can outperform sharply for a stretch, then hand some of it back when the fear fades.
Gold vs. stocks in 2026
The year-to-date story in 2026 is the mirror image of 2025. Gold has cooled to -7.0% while stocks have led the rebound:
- S&P 500 (SPY): +10.1% year-to-date, ahead of gold
- Gold (GLD): -7.0% year-to-date, giving back part of its 2025 surge
- Bonds (AGG): modestly positive on rate cut expectations
- Bitcoin: volatile and weak over the tariff window. It is the other alternative asset that often comes up in tariff-shock comparisons. See Bitcoin vs. gold 2026.
What this means
This is not a recommendation to sell stocks and buy gold. Both assets have produced strong returns over the past three years. The data shows that portfolio diversification into hard assets provided measurable downside protection during a period when policy uncertainty hit equities.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The tariff situation could resolve tomorrow, gold could correct sharply, and stocks could rally. The numbers here reflect what happened, not what will happen next.
See the full interactive breakdown: Gold since 2023 | Gold since 2020 | Compare any two investments
Related: What inflation does to your cash | $1,000 in the S&P 500 | Buying the S&P 500 after the Liberation Day crash | The February 2026 Bitcoin dip